Katyusha/Grads and Qassams are not the only rocket threats to Israel; there is one of a far more serous nature; in fact; an existential threat. Iran's launch of a domestically-produced satellite atop a Shahab 3 rocket in early February of 2009 has revived fears that Tehran will soon be able to drop a nuclear weapon on Israel. The fear is well founded. While lobbing a heavy warhead inter-continental distances would require a more powerful launch vehicle, if you can place a payload in orbit you are well on your way to being able to hit any spot on earth, any spot that matters, in thirty minute or less. The distance between Iran and Israel is not inter-continental.

Iran's Increasing Rocket Expertise

  The launch coincided with celebrations of the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution and raised concerns in the United States and other countries about Iran’s potential use of long-range missiles to send warheads halfway around the globe. In using its own rocket to launch the satellite, Iran joined eight other nations that have used their own technologies to send objects into orbit. Amateur observers have already spotted the craft in the night sky.

  While Iran has said it wants to put its own satellites into orbit to monitor natural disasters in the earthquake-prone nation and improve its telecommunications, aerospace experts said the action had a number of potential military implications, even though the satellite was small and lightweight compared with a nuclear warhead. Successfully placing a satellite in orbit was a long-term effort which required the mastery of staging - creating a multistage rocket, and thus weight, as it gains altitude.

  The U.S. State Department called the event worrisome. “Iran’s development of a space launch vehicle establishes the technical basis from which Iran could develop long-range ballistic missile systems,” said Robert A. Wood, a department spokesman. A Pentagon spokesman said the launch indicated Iran was working on a ballistic missile capable of “increasingly long range.” Combine a long-range ICBM with a nuclear payload and you get a new member of an even smaller club, the countries such as the U.S., Russia, China, France and Britain who can play the deadly serious global strategic game of hitting places around the globe with nuclear weapons.

  Iran’s success elicited grudging admiration from the Pentagon's expert. “They have had more success than a lot of other aspirants. Their path has been fairly linear and fairly successful." All this occurred, of course, in the face of international sanctions against Iran, which included specific UN prohibitions against work on ballistic missiles.

  Another reason for concern about the Iranian accomplishment is that lofting a satellite into a successful orbit is, in some respects, more technologically challenging than building an ICBM. So Iran would appear to be extremely close to having the ability to send aloft a small nuclear device. And, this expert said, a trigger for a small, unsophisticated nuclear device is relatively easy to design and make if you are not trying to be highly accurate.

  When the Soviet Union launched the first satellite into space in 1957, the action shook the world due to the relatively fine technical line that exists between rockets that can launch spacecraft into orbit and those that can loft warheads over long distances.

  A spy satellite of reasonable performance should weigh about 300 kg. Once Iran learns how to put 300 kg into earth orbit, it could adapt the satellite launcher as an ICBM that could drop more than 300 kg most anywhere in the world. Every time the Iranian satellite passed above the U.S., it would remind America of Iran's ability to strike. Remember the impact on the U.S. of the Soviet "Sputnik"?

Uncertain Deterrence

  It is hard to believe that the Government in Tehran, or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which is actually in control of the weapons would attack the United States, unprovoked, with nuclear-armed rockets as it would result in a massive retaliation. Though in the age of suicide bombers we can never be sure. The IRGC has its own air force, ground force, and navy, and which reports to Iran's spiritual leader.

  That there might be such an attack on Israel is much less difficult to imagine. One or two bombs could cause fatal or near fatal, damage.

  The U.S.'s nuclear umbrella might not be sufficient to deter the Iranians. It is not our intention to impugn American intentions, but, you can not be sure the Americans would actually carry out the threat to respond to a nuclear attack on Israel - the damage would already be done and the focus would likely be on rescuing the surviving Jews. One should also consider that with Israel destroyed a major impediment to better U.S. relations with the Arab/Muskim world would have conveniently disappeared. Not to mention the gut-wrenching decision to use nuclear weapons that would face the American president.

  The conciliatory statements coming from the Obama administration do not lead al-Ghoul's analysts to believe that the United States will be aggressive in trying to prevent Iran from eventually building nuclear weapons. In the absence of a concerted effort by other stares, Israel will eventually feel itself forced to act. That might create greater problems for the international community that had they taken care of the problem themselves.

Effects of a Nuclear Strike in Israel

  Israel can not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. An analysis of the damage resulting from a nuclear detonation in the heart of the greater Tel Aviv area makes that clear. The following estimates for an airburst over Jaffa are based on a study by U.S. nuclear scientists, who used data collected during nuclear testing in the U.S.

  There are three primary immediate effects of a nuclear detonation; each of which varioulsy extends to a certain radius from ground zero - Blast,heat and radiation:

  1. Blast/Overpressure. Most of the initial damage produced by a nuclear explosion comes from the blast effects. Most structures will be completely destroyed by the shockwave and increased air pressure (overpressure) travelling as a wave. Strongly-built commercial commercial buildings will be badly damaged.

  2. Heat - Approximately 35 percent of the energy from a nuclear explosion is an intense burst of thermal radiation. Near ground zero temperatures reach millions of degrees and everything in this area will be vaporized. Temperatures decrease with distance from ground zero, but will still ignite anything that will burn over considerable areas as well as causing burns to those not killed outright.

  3. There are several kinds of radiation emitted from a nuclear explosion including gamma, neutron, and ionizing radiation. Depending on device yield, distance from ground zero and any shielding; radiation will cause fatalities immediately to weeks after a detonation.

  The number of people injured will be at least double the number killed. Existing first-aid facilities will be inadequate to care for the casualties.

  Fatality estimates are based on figures prepared by the U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, for the U.S. Senate. They posit nuclear strikes on Detroit, Michigan, and on Leningrad (St. Petersburg). Assuming that each city has a population of about 4.5 million, a hydrogen bomb would kill approximately 2.5 million. Before estimating the effect of a nuclear weapon detonation in the Tel Aviv area, it is instructive to review the the two incidents in which atomic weapons with yields of approximately about 20 kilotons were used. In Hiroshima, 140,000 people out of a total population of 265,000 were killed. In Nagasaki, with a population of 240,000, the bomb killed 80,000 people.

  A 20-kiloton detonation (like those dropped on Japan, quite small by today's standards) above the port of Jaffa would cause massive fires in an area encompassing Petah Tikva, Lod and Holon. Blast effects would be seen in an area including Tel Baruch, Beit Dagan and Palmahim. Heavy casualties would result as far as Ra'anana in the north and Rishon Letzion to the south. Of a population of approximately 1.5 million, 250,000 would be killed outright. The number of seriously injured would total half a million.

  Thermal effects of a a 100-kiloton detonation, the most powerful bomb Iran would be expected to posses, would extend as far as Ra'anana, Modi'in and Yavne, blast effects would reach as far as Netanya, Ariel and Ashdod. Heavy casualties would ocur as far as Ramle and Ashkelon. Out of 2.5 million residents, 500,000 would be killed outright with a further 1 million injured.

  An airburst over Jaffa would cause heat and fires in a region as widespread as Hadera, Jerusalem and Ashkelon, aftershock and destruction to a range of Kfar Sava, Elkana and Rehovot and heavy casualties as far as Herzliya and Modi'in. Out of 3.2 million residents in this area, 700,000 would be killed immediately. About 1.5 million more would be injured.

  It should be noted that these estimates are based on a single detonation. The effects of multiple detonations would be far worse. Fallout (radioactive dust) would not only double, or even triple the number of fatalities, but also render the affected areas uninhabitable for years. Fallout can be carried thousands of kilometers by wind.

  For more information concerning hypothetical nuclear exchanges between Iran, Israel and Syria see: Iran, Israel, and Nuclear War

Electro-Magnetic Pulse - Weapon of Mass Disruption

  There is another reason American military and national security officials are so worried: in at least two earlier ballistic missile launches, the Iranians launched in ways that “appear they were designed to optimize an EMP burst,” according to a Pentagon source with detailed knowledge of the Iranian’s efforts and of space technology.

  An EMP attack could be launched to disable defense systems in preparation for a follow-on nuclear or non-nuclear attack. EMP destroys power sources, communication capabilities and would cripple or destroy the abilities of most satellites to function. A percentage of military communication and other satellites are hardened against EMP but the gravest effect would be at surface level.Effectively, whoever was subjected to an EMP burst would be shoved back to an agricultural state. Few civilian assets such as power grids, generators, telephone systems and commercial communications satellites are hardened against EMP.

  An EMP is a high-intensity burst of electromagnetic energy caused by the rapid acceleration of charged particles. In an attack, these particles interact and send electrical systems into chaos in three ways: First, the electromagnetic shock disrupts electronics, such as sensors, communications systems, protective systems, computers, and other similar devices. The second component has a slightly smaller range and is similar in effect to lightning. Although protective measures have long been established for lightning strikes, the potential for damage to critical infrastructure from this component exists because it rapidly follows and compounds the first component. The final component is slower than the previous two, but has a longer duration. It is a pulse that flows through electricity transmission lines—damaging distribution centers and fusing power lines. The combination of the three components can easily cause irreversible damage to many electronic systems

  EMP attacks may be either nuclear or non-nuclear. The most devastating form, and most difficult to achieve, is an EMP that results from a nuclear weapon. This form destroys any "unhardened" electronic equipment and electric power system— which means virtually any civilian infrastructure in the United States. The pulse occurs when a nuclear weapon explodes above the visual horizon line at an altitude between 40 and 400 kilometers. The detonation of the nuclear warhead releases photons in the form of gamma radiation and x-rays. These energetic particles scatter in every direction away from the blast. Many of the particles descend and interact with the magnetic field lines of the Earth, where they become trapped. The trapped electrons then create an oscillating electric current within the field, which rapidly produces a large electromagnetic field in the form of a pulse. Once the pulse reaches electronic equipment, it negatively interacts with them and either disables, damages, or destroys them. An EMP generated by a nuclear weapon could affect all critical infrastructures that depend on electricity and electronics within the vicinity of the nuclear warhead blast radius. A nuclear weapon with a burst height of approximately 100 kilometers could expose objects located within an area 725 miles in diameter to the effects of EMP.[2]

  A non-nuclear, or improvised, EMP is a radio-frequency (rather than gamma or x-ray frequency) weapon. While easier to conceal and not requiring a missile, a non-nuclear EMP must be detonated close to the target and does not produce as much damage as the nuclear version, affecting largely localized areas. But such a weapon could be harnessed as an "E-Bomb" (electromagnetic bomb), a stand-alone weapon that is easier to hide and maneuver. It is difficult to estimate the exact damage of an improvised attack, but in 1993 EMP testing by the U.S. military shut down engine controls 300 meters away at a contractor site.[4] Not large-scale by any means, but damaging enough to cause concern.

  For countries less dependent on modern technologies and electronics, including both rogue states like Iran and North Korea as well as stateless terrorist groups, EMP provides a potential way to attack the United States through asymmetric means. EMPs could be used to circumvent America's superior conventional military power while reducing vulnerability to retaliation in kind. It would certainly not be impossible for a terrorist organization, especially if state-sponsored, to acquire or construct an unsophisticated ballistic missile (non-working Scuds are reportedly available on the open market for $100,000) and use it in an EMP attack against America.[19] Such a missile could be launched from a freighter in international waters and detonated in the atmosphere over the United States without warning.

  The materials used to build non-nuclear EMP weapons can be easily acquired or manufactured by moderately developed terrorist groups with even limited financial resources. Although the potential impact is less, an improvised EMP could still inflict major damage. The construction of a nuclear weapon is much more difficult and requires a good understanding of physics, electrical engineering, and explosives; but these terror groups are actively seeking to gain this knowledge, and rogue states could see opportunity in collaborating with these groups to accelerate the process.

  A 2007 report by the congressionally-mandated Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack detailed the devastation that could result from a relatively unsophisticated EMP strike. It also detailed how EMP works and what measures the U.S. government might take to reduce the risk from it.

  One independent study, “Initial Assessment of Electromagnetic Pulse Impact Upon Baltimore-Washington-Richmond Region,” says a Scud-type missile launched from a small ship 200 miles off our coast could cause up to $771 billion in damage, equal to 7% of gross domestic product.

  Israel's high-tech economy and defense systems would be similarly damaged in the event of an EMP atack even with "hardening" to protect against EMP effects. Moreover, given it's small size of the country one EMP weapon wouod affect the entire country.

Shahab 3 - Most Likely Delivery Vehicle

  The Iranian Shahab 3 (meteor or shooting star), with a range of 1,300 km, is derived from the North Korean No Dong rocket. The Shahab 3 can threaten either Tel Aviv or Riyadh from the same launch point. The newer Shahab 3ER (extended range), with its 2,000 km range, can reach Ankara in Turkey, Alexandria in Egypt, or Sanaa in Yemen from one single launch point deep within Iran. Thus, Iran does not have to move its launchers to project power, making its missile arsenal more survivable.

  Iran also acquired eighteen BM25 land-mobile missiles with launchers from North Korea which can strike targets in Europe. In the past, the BM25 has been produced in two models: one with a range of 2,500 km and the second with a range of 3,500 km. Obviously, they threaten not just Iran's immediate neighbors, and it seems that the Iranians are looking to project power beyond their own region.

Iran's Space Program Extends Its Global Reach

  In 2006, the Iranian political leadership seems to have moved beyond the needs of self-defense and is now talking about global power projection. At a recent conference in Berlin, one of the deputies to Iran's foreign minister called upon the world to recognize that Islam comprises 25 percent of humanity and should occupy its rightful place in decision-making in world affairs and in the allocation of the world's resources. Statements like this are not about self-defense.

  Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has stated that Islam should roll back 300 years of Western ascendancy. He was speaking in the name of Islam, not in the name of Iran. At the same time, there is talk about the greatness of Iran, with its 6,000-year-old civilization. The Iranians are trying to retrieve the old glory of the empire and at the same time become the leaders of world Islam. The development of long-range missiles is a key element in building up Iran's power to assume such a leadership position.

  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the first priority of the Iranian regime as it launches this rocket: to achieve an intelligence capability that only satellites can provide. They can not only intercept radio, satellite and e-mail communications but they can -- if highly enough developed -- also track the movement of military and economic assets.

  Iran’s apologists will rush to claim that Iran is still years away from competing with the US and Europe in this field. But once one satellite is up and observing and transmitting the next will bear higher more developed technology and its military function can be morphed to even threaten the single greatest vulnerability the US military and intelligence agencies have: the defenselessness of our satellite systems.

  AP reports: "Iran hopes to launch three more satellites by 2010, the government has said." Once a web is installed, the strategic capacity of Tehran in intercepting moves aimed at its nuclear and other installations will increase. By 2010 and beyond Iran’s strategic weapons system is projected to develop further. By 2012, it may have reached the feared benchmark of possessing the nuclear weapons, the delivery systems and the satellite capacity to detect any action against them.

  The Iranian regime has a strategic agenda which is clear and pronounced: Expansion in the region. All other developments of military, intelligence and technological nature are at the service of such world view. Had Tehran not been the seat of a radical ideological project with tentacles reaching as far as Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Gaza and the rest of the world -- the placing of a single communications satellite in space to "check earthquakes" would be no more than an interesting bit of space news. But the earthquakes the Iranian regime is looking for are of a different nature: they involve a massive change in the political and identity landscape of a whole region.